14.9.11

¿Conocías el método Delphi?

Did you know about the Dephi method?


El método Delphi es una metodología de investigación multidisciplinar...
The Delphi method is a structured communication technique...


El método Delphi es una metodología de investigación multidisciplinar para la realización de pronósticos y predicciones. Fue desarrollo por la Corporación Rand al inicio de la Guerra Fría para investigar el impacto de la tecnología en la guerra. Posteriormente complementada por Linstone & Turoff, Bright y otros(Scott, 2001). El nombre del método se basa en las predicciones del oráculo de Delfos


The Delphi method is a structured communication technique, originally developed as a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts.
In the standard version, the experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results.[2]



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